The future of mobility will be shaped depending on who would drive vehicles and ownership of vehicles. The unit transport cost – which might be carried out by driverless or carsharing – will decrease almost up to 70 percent when compared with the vehicles having driver and individual ownership, according to research of Deloitte. Highlighting the transport technologies and social tendencies have triggered the transformation in automotive and transport sector, the report marked what kind of transport experience we would have in the future. Deloitte Turkey Consumer and Industrial Products’ Head Ozgur Yalta announced about the issue; “Automotive and transport sector have been on the verge of transformation by the effect of technological and social tendencies. Despite the scope and impact of this transformation is not seen completely, the powers in the sector have a potential that might affect the current structure of the industry in terms of business models, competition condition, how asset is constituted and customer value proposition. The transport technologies will get a brand new form in the upcoming period, there are two various predictions for the future mobility. 1. According to insider view in the sector, the industry will evolve naturally and incrementally toward a future mobility system that retains its root in what exists today. The key players, major assets and overall structure of the current ecosystem can remain intact while change progresses in an orderly, linear fashion. The incumbent mindset appears dually focused on sustaining the current model while testing change in small ways. 2. As for the disruptive, a whole new age is dawning featuring fully autonomous cars accessible on demand. Before long, a tipping point will occur, after which the momentum of change will become unstoppable. New entrants, notably Google, Uber, and Apple are catalysts for transformation. Unlike the stakeholders in today’s system, they do not have vested stakes to protect. The report also suggests four different scenarios who would control the vehicle (by driver or automatic) and ownership of vehicle (private or shared).
1. Incremental change: This most conservative vision of the future puts heavy weight on the massive assets tied up in today’s system, assuming that these assets’ owners will neither willingly abandon them nor eagerly transfer capital into new enterprises with uncertain returns. It sees private ownership remaining the norm, with consumers opting for the particular forms of privacy, flexibility, security, and convenience that come with owning vehicles. Importantly, while incorporating driver-assist technologies, this vision assumes that fully autonomous drive won’t become widely available anytime soon. With so little change envisioned, this future state reinforces automakers’ reliance on a business model that emphasizes unit sales. They continue to invest in the development and introduction of new vehicle lines with advanced technologies, and dealers retain responsibility for the customer experience. Other industry players are similarly incented to rely on the practices and structures that have been well established for decades.
2 – A world of car-sharing: The second future state anticipates continued growth of shared access to vehicles.20 In this state, economic scale and increased competition drive the expansion of shared vehicle services into new geographic territories and more specialized customer segments. Here, passengers more heavily value the convenience of point-to-point transportation created through ridesharing and carsharing, saving them the hassle of navigating traffic and finding parking spaces. Plus, the system offers options for non-drivers such as seniors, low-income families, and minors without licenses. In this future state, as the cost per mile decreases, some come to view ridesharing as a more economical, convenient, and sustainable way to get around, particularly for short point-to-point movements (see below for our analysis of the economics of mobility). As shared mobility serves a greater proportion of local transportation needs, multivehicle households can begin reducing the number of cars they own while others may abandon ownership altogether, reducing future demand.
3- Driverless Revolution: The third state is one in which autonomous-drive technology proves to be viable, safe, convenient, and economical, yet private ownership continues to prevail. Collaboration between leading academics, regulatory agencies, and businesses accelerates progress toward this future.21 Both technology and automotive firms continue investing heavily to increase “V2X” (V2V and V2I) capabilities; in parallel, driverless technology matures, with the success of early pilots fostering quick adoption. Given that this future state assumes most drivers still prefer owning their own vehicles, individuals seek the driverless functionality for its safety and other potential benefits but continue to own cars for many of the same reasons they did before the advent of autonomous drive. They might even invest more in their vehicles as a new era of customization dawns and it becomes appealing to use vehicles tailored for specific occasions and circumstances.22 That said, the features in which owners are willing to invest, and the design of the vehicles themselves, may change; this new segment of the market may offer lighter, more technically advanced vehicles that embrace design principles counter to today’s four-door, driver-in-front-on-left, gripping-the-steering-wheel reality.
4. A new age of accessible autonomy: The fourth future state anticipates a convergence of both the autonomous and vehiclesharing trends. In this future, mobility management companies offer a range of passenger experiences to meet widely varied needs at differentiated price points.23 The earliest, most avid adopters seem likely to be urban commuters, given the potential for faster trips thanks to reduced distances between highly automated vehicles, and routes enhanced by real-time awareness of conditions. Over time, as smart infrastructure expands and driver usage nears a tipping point, fleets of autonomous shared vehicles could spread from urban centers to densely populated suburbs and beyond. Advanced communications technologies coordinate the customer’s point-to-point mobility experience: Intuitive interfaces enable users to order a vehicle pickup within minutes and travel from point A to point B efficiently, safely, and cost-effectively. Vehicle and traffic network systems operators, in-vehicle content-experience providers (e.g., software and infotainment firms), and data owners (e.g., telecoms) could have further opportunities to monetize the value of passengers’ attention in transit as well as additional metadata pertaining to system use.